Cutline: San Francisco has given up some points and with Dalton Kincaid shaking off an injury, we could see Dawson Knox once again leaping into the snowy endzone Sunday night against the 49ers. Rick Scuteri photo.
By CHUCK POLLOCK, Wellsville Sun Senior Sports Columnist
Back when this season began, most of us in the pro football media prediction business assessed the Bills, given their rebuilding vibe, as a 10- or 11-win team.
I settled on 10-7 figuring losses to Baltimore, Houston, Kansas City, Detroit and San Francisco, and splits with the Dolphins and Jets given the preseason hype of the latter two.
The reasoning wasn’t random.
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Buffalo had lost six of eight captains, wideout Stefon Diggs was traded to the Texans and fellow starter Gabe Davis left for Jacksonville as a free agent. The offensive line had lost two of five starters, both starting safeties were gone, Jordan Poyer signing with the Dolphins, Micah Hyde retiring and linebacker Matt Milano, arguably the team’s best defender, sidelined with a biceps injury that would keep him out at least until December.
So what’s happened?
Buffalo got hammered by the Ravens and lost a heartbreaker to the Texans, who haven’t been nearly as good as predicted … but the Bills won the other nine games, including Kansas City and sweeping Miami.
It’s been an unexpectedly weird season as nine of the 16 AFC teams have records under .500 and it’s likely that the East and South will send only the division winner to the postseason.
New York media market “experts” who predicted, in preseason, that Buffalo would finish third in the East behind the Jets and Dolphins, look foolish. Miami (5-6), with its two losses to the Bills, trails in the division by five games, and the Jets, 3-8, have become a laughing stock. They fired their head coach before midseason and their soon-to-be 41-year-old “savior” quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, has played like the second coming of Bubby Brister.
NOW BUFFALO heads into the final six games of the season starting Sunday night against the reeling San Francisco 49ers (5-6) at Highmark Stadium (8:20, NBC-TV, Bills Radio Network). Weather predictions are for temperatures in the 20s, 50% chance of snow with 1-3 inches of accumulation and 15 mph winds.
“From a preparation standpoint we’ve been through it before,” Bills coach Sean McDermott said. “We can’t control the weather, it’s just really about how we respond to it.”
What’s happened to last February’s Super Bowl loser — 27-24 to Kansas City — has flummoxed the Bay Area media. The 49ers have lost four one-possession games (Cardinals by 1, Rams and Seahawks by 3 each and Vikings by 6) then fell to the Chiefs by 10 and got pounded last Sunday by 28 in Green Bay.
San Francisco’s defense has been awful giving up 260 points, the same number that its touted offense has scored.
In fairness, the 49ers’ ‘D’ has been hurt by injuries to edge-rushing star Joey Bosa (hip/oblique), tackle Kevin Givens (groin) and cornerback Charvarius Ward (personal) who didn’t play at Green Bay. In addition, Pro Bowl linebacker Fred Warner has been playing through a fractured ankle and has been a fraction of his usual self.
Worse, defensive coordinator Nick Sorenson has been under fire from all sides, especially after his unit was flagged twice for 12 men on the field on either side of a nearly one-minute delay at Green Bay.
But the real issue is offense. In the loss to the Packers, quarterback Brock Purdy (shoulder), elite tackle Trent Williams, guard Jon Feliciano, the former Bill (knee), didn’t play and star running back Christian McCaffery hasn’t even been a shadow of his former productive self with no touchdowns and microscopic yardage in three games since returning from an Achilles injury. Some members of the 49ers press have even speculated his productive career might be over at age 28.
Suddenly, coach Kyle Shanahan’s star as “offensive guru” has taken a tarnish.
But not to McDermott.
“He’s a great coach, simply put … we’ve both been in the league a long time and gone against each other in the NFC South a number of times (as assistants; McDermott with Carolina, Shanahan in Tampa Bay), twice a year,: he said. “I don’t think there are many coaches in this league that are better than Kyle Shanahan.”
But for all the accolades that Shanahan has received, here’s an interesting stat. Both he and McDermott have been NFL head coaches for eight years but the latter has won 82 games including playoffs, Shanahan 69. The big difference is that Kyle is 8-4 in the postseason, Sean 5-6.
HERE’S HOW San Francisco’s two-game losing streak has affected the betting line.
Coming into the week of the Buffalo game, the Niners were favored by two points. Today, the Bills are giving seven. A nine-point swing in that span is extraordinary and says a lot about how the bookmakers view San Francisco’s swoon.
The Bills, meanwhile, have fared well on the injury report although there’s one reason for concern. Second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid, who missed the win over Kansas City with a knee injury, didn’t practice Thursday or Friday despite having the bye week to recover and is out for Sunday as is backup tackle Tylan Grable, on injured reserve with a groin problem. Questionable are wide receiver Keon Coleman (wrist), Milano (biceps) and defensive tackle DeWayne Carter (wrist).
San Francisco’s injury report wasn’t so kind. The good news is that quarterback Brock Purdy (shoulder) will likely play. But out are edge rusher Nick Bosa (hip/pblique), Williams (ankle), linebacker Dre Greenlaw (Achiles), cornerback Deommodore Lenior (knee), guard Aaron Banks (concussion) and defensive tackle Jordan Elliott (concussion).
Questionable, besides Purdy, are wide receiver Chris Conley, defensive tackle Kevin Givens (groin), linebacker Demetrius Flanagan-Fowles and cornerback Renardo Green (neck).
POLLOCK’S PICK: Bills 24, 49ers 16
(Chuck Pollock, a Wellsville Sun and Olean Star senior sports columnist, can be reached at cpollock@wnynet.net.)
