A column and game prediction by CHUCK POLLOCK, Senior Sports Columnist
Mike McDaniel knows the numbers.
The Dolphins coach is painfully aware that since Sean McDermott took over that spot with the Bills in 2017, Buffalo is 14-2 versus Miami and has won the last five straight.
He also knows that it was McDermott’s team that dramatically altered the course of his own season back in Game 2.
Early in September, national pundits saw the AFC East as a battle between the improved Dolphins and Jets with the four-consecutive division-winning Bills relegated to third having lost their two top receivers (Stefon Diggs, trade; Gabe Davis, free agent), six of eight co-captains, and elite linebacker Matt Milano.
So, in Week 2, Buffalo, fresh off a sloppy home win over Arizona, headed to Miami Gardens as a 2½-point underdog to the Dolphins who survived to beat Jacksonville by a last-second field goal in the opener.
It wasn’t a game.
The Bills hung a 31-10 defeat on Miami in a game that was never in doubt. Worse, for McDaniel, late in the game quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered a concussion that kept him out for four weeks, three of them Dolphins’ losses.
Come Sunday afternoon, Miami (2-5) desperately seeking to stay alive in the wild-card race, let alone the division, is in Orchard Park, as a 6-point underdog, to face the 6-2 Bills who have a stranglehold on the AFC East (CBS-TV, Bills Radio Network, 1 o’clock).
“I THINK it’s always interesting how football is very similar to life,” McDaniel said, adding philosophically, “cumstances kind of direct your tonality, what you focus on. Right now, our main focus is absolutely, positively how we play football and how we do things to win games …”
“It’s a division road game against an opponent that everyone in our division is chasing. But more than anything, the opponent doesn’t matter, it’s the perspective that you learn when you’re not doing the things to beat NFL teams, let alone the Bills.”
He added of Buffalo, which leads the NFL in turnover ratio at +11 and hasn’t lost the takeaway-giveaway statistic in a game this season. “They thrive on other people’s mistakes. They’re literally challenging you to do right longer and take advantage of groups of players that are unable to execute down-in, down-out, and they do a masterful job of putting it on the other team to earn the win.”
BUT McDERMOTT is wary of a team whose offensive weapons include Tagovailoa, speedster wide receivers Tyreek Hill, Jalen Waddle and Odell Beckham plus productive running backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane.
“They’re so explosive, so dynamic, so potent in what they do and how they do things,” he said. “Coach McDaniel does a great job of putting them in the right positions, so they’re very tough.”
As for his success against Miami, McDermott seemed uncomfortable with the question.
“Just overall, holistically, playing complimentary football certainly helps … keeping their offense off the field,” he said, “doing what we can to win one play at a time.”
What he left out was the performance of his quarterback, Josh Allen, 12-2 versus Miami, with 37 touchdown passes in 14 games, including one playoff, and rushed for five scores.
HOWEVER, what does concern McDermott is his team’s propensity for penalties in two of the last three games, albeit road victories.
There were 11 for 94 yards versus the Jets and 13 for 85 yards against the Seahawks.
“Well, you’ve got to be intentional about it,” he said about dealing with infractions. “It starts with truth and awareness ‘you can’t do this.’ It’s the standard, the expectation and we’re intentional about it, going out on the practice field.
“I’m one referee out there and it’s hard to see everything. We had officials here through the spring and training camp and it was great to have them, but they all have other jobs they’re doing now. So the staff has to do a really good job in the film review.”
He added, “When you play aggressively, you’re going to get some penalties … that said, some of the overlapping people (committing them) and overlapping fouls … we’ve got to get them out of our game.”
When asked about Buffalo’s division lead, three games plus a road victory over the 3-6 Jets (after Thursday night’s win), 3½ including the win at Miami, McDermott didn’t seem totally forthcoming.
“I really don’t know who’s doing well and who’s not,” he maintained, “(just) things we need to work on and things we can do to get better at.”
Right.
THE BILLS had an encouraging injury report with the only player out being fullback/special teamer Reggie Gilliam (hip), three others are questionable: cornerback Christian Benford (wrist), and wide receivers Amari Cooper (wrist) and Curtis Samuel (pectoral).
Out for the Dolphins are defensive lineman Zach Sieler, cornerback Kader Kohou and tight end Julian Hill. Doubtful is safety Jevon Holland with wide receiver River Cracraft, cornerback Storm Duck and fullback Alec Ingold are questionable.
POLLOCK’S PICK: Bills 27, Dolphins 20
(Chuck Pollock, an Olean Star and Wellsville Sun senior sports columnist, can be reached at cpollock@wnynet.net.)
